I love your work, JVL, but this piece feels so much like you’re just telling them to “lay back and think of England”, as they say in the UK.
Dying to defend your homeland - even in a futile effort on an individual level, even with a strong likelihood of dying, and even if the result is likely a fait accompli - is the ultimate in sacrifice and bravery. Do you think the dead of
The Warsaw Uprising were foolish, or that they were heroes who showed the absolute measure of their incredible bravery?
What happened to “give me liberty or give me death”?
To misquote Churchill, it may not be the beginning of the end, but it's the end of the beginning. Russia failed to score a coup de main, the Ukrainians did not rise up in joy to meet Russian forces, and the Russians failed to gain air superiority, knock out the command and control structure, or prevent damaging images and reporting from Ukraine. Russia has not been able to seal the Polish border, nor has it stopped rail transfer across that border. Its elite forces have been decimated; the street fighting reported in Kyiv was probably Ukrainian forces hunting down and killing wandering Russian paratroopers. Questions have arisen over how many missiles Russia has left. The majority of its quickly available combat forces have been deployed. Quick victory seems more and more unlikely.
Additionally, according to the Pentagon, Russia is having a hard time resupplying its forces. The main supply line for the troops aimed at Kiev runs through Europe's largest swamp, and the area is in partial thaw. If Russia has moved armored vehicles down paved highways, those highways are now unusable.
The specter of a longer war with high casualties confronts Russia. Its economic pain will only increase. The Ukrainian war is forcing Sweden and Finland, neutrals on Russia's northwestern flank, to consider closer relations with NATO. NATO itself is revitalized, and its members are beginning to direct lethal aid to the Ukraine.
It's far too early to say Russia missed the bus; but it obviously was consulting the wrong timetable.
I’m listening to the Secret Podcast and just spit out my breakfast when I heard about Rick Scott wanting to name a border wall after Trump. Please come to my kitchen to help clean it up. Thank you.
I'm not familiar enough yet with JVL's work to be disappointed, but I am surprised at the tone of defeatism and futility in the reflections above.
Parallels with the 1930s are slippery and tricky at times like this, but if there really is one, I'm more inclined to lean toward the resistance of the Poles in 1939 than to the plight of the tragic, morally compromised Republicans of the Spanish Civil War. The Poles, too, were massively outmanned and outgunned, but if they hadn't been betrayed and outflanked by the Soviet invasion, they were prepared to fight on, with or without hope in the short term. They never planned to ask for terms, and they're one of Hitler's few victims who never did.
Jan Karski was one of my professors at Georgetown in the 1970s. The defeat of the Nazis brought not victory but a longer, equally hopeless-seeming defeat to Poland. But even through all that, he never seemed to lose hope or faith in the ideals that drove his heroism in the '40s. Through such indomitable people, Polish freedom was ultimately restored.
If the Ukrainians seek terms, no one can blame them, and no one should condemn them: the kind of courage that Poland showed in 1939 and after is a gift, not an obligation that one person or nation can try to impose on another. But if they choose to resist until they cannot resist any more, and then still spit in the aggressor's eye, our only moral response is profound respect, and whatever we can do to aid the survivors, the refugees, and the captives.
Peter the Great's disastrous initial campaign in Europe, the Winter War in Finland, and the first Chechnya war might be better guides to what might happen in Ukraine. In all of them, Russia seriously underestimated enemy capacities and motivation, used poorly trained and unmotivated conscripts, followed military scripts from earlier campaigns, and had military commanders more noted for their political acumen than their command ability.
Feb 26, 2022·edited Feb 26, 2022Liked by Jonathan V. Last
For a number of reasons, Spain is not a good analogy. Republican Spain had deeply split commands and ideological interference, began the war with an almost complete lack of heavy weapons and trained commanders, was denied weaponry by democracies which did not want to get involved.
Regarding the invasion, I'm beginning to wonder if Russia has been fooled by its own propaganda into thinking that they would be welcomed by Ukrainians. Russia's invasion force is much too small (an assaulting commander usually wants at least a 3:1 advantage in numbers), and probably a third of Russia's forces are not combat soldiers proper, but second-line and support troops, necessary to modern warfare. Also, Ukraine is a big place, where even 200,000 troops will be hard-pressed to maintain contact and cohesion.
Finally, what made the Red Army fearsome in WWII is missing here. Intense propaganda portraying Germans as inhuman beasts, soldiers who had all lost family and friends to German atrocities, and a Communist ethic hammered into those soldiers since birth, all made the Red Army a force with which to be reckoned. Now, Russian soldiers are being sent to attack a culture seen as similar and friendly by Russians, and they have no personal or ideological motive to fight.
As shown by the Snake Island incident, the Ukrainians are the ones here who have high morale and motivation, a willingness to fight and die for their own nation and freedom. Don't underestimate that.
I agree with everything Jonathan has written here about the horrific loss of life and extreme suffering that lies ahead for the Ukrainians if they keep up the fighting. But what about the purges and killings that surely also lie ahead if/when the Russian puppet government is installed? How many Ukrainians will join Navalny in prison camps in Russia?
We always enjoy your column. I don’t get comparisons of Afghanistan to Ukraine. Afg. was a swamp for the USSR and also a country too diverse geographically & economically with corrupt++ political leaders for us to ever rebuild as a Democratic Nation. Different tribes, languages, etc. The Taliban were enforcing their Religious views. Ukraine is a Democrat nation on its own. Ukraine desires freedom & ties with the West. Ukraine men & women are defending their COUNTRY. Putin’s newest invasion is continuing a war he began in 2014 with his grab of Crimea. -“Windows on the Sea” + Determination to also take over or Puppetize the other countries formerly part of the USSR. Very different. Perhaps 🤔 I am too Eurocentric.
I see what Ted is getting at, but I don't think it's quite a fair analysis to say that the franchise was granted to Black men in 1870 but not to Black women until 1965. There were plenty of Black women living outside the Jim Crow South during 1920-1965. I feel like it minimizes the significance of the 19th Amendment to talk about it this way.
Thought Biden's overt reaffirmation of his campaign pledge in the not-too-distant past was perhaps a tactical mistake vis a vie cannon fodder for the Right. Thought stealth producing the same results perhaps a better approach. Well, screw it. What the hell do I know anyway?
"Because we all need some beauty and hope just about now." Well, that I do know.
So, hell yes, "A thousand times yes." And at this moment, even if for only a moment, I am more than proud of America and of having the privilege of calling myself an American.
And pleased that a politician that I voted for ended up keeping a promise, even if it wasn't the driving factor in his being my choice. A man who keeps his word about doing something good in an arena in which not doing so is more often the expectation is a little piece of something beautiful as well.
"...Tom Nichols hammering home how crucial it is to be skeptical of contemporaneous reports on the fighting in Ukraine."
I don't think this can be hammered home too hard or too often.
The hysteria pumped up on Twitter is absolutely nauseating both from those who support Ukraine and those who support or minimize Russia's behavior. Brief cell phone snaps and 10 second videos are not to be trusted without some journalistic exploration and educated understanding.
In the end the anti-social media will make a strong and effective response impossible because Putin has a pipeline of disinformation working for him at every level of American society. A political party that will support Ukraine--- but not the way Biden is doing it--- even though he is mostly doing what they say should be done... but "Let's Go, Brandon!"
Following WW2 we were able to hammer out a general bipartisan foreign policy that informed (for good or bad) our military posture. How to work the policy was debated but the overall objectives went unquestioned from Truman to George H. W. Bush. With the collapse of the Soviet Empire the bipartisan consensus began to fall apart. The Congressional slide into hyperpartisan "ownership" of the government beginning with newt Gingrich meant that both parties became hesitant to ratify the foreign policy choices of any administration. From then on a victory for America was a victory for "the other team" and credit could not be given lest the other team would be effective and popular. Better America fail than allow that to happen. That is where we are today.
The singular exception was the few months after 9/11 to election of 2002. Congress, under majorities of both parties, has not had the courage to declare war itself but ample acid to through in the face of administrations trying to engage militarily where it was felt necessary. George W. Bush and Obama could hardly rely on Congress for support at all.
So that is the vital and probably irreparably lost element to push America through any foreign crisis. Now an interloper like Trump can just cast any agreement made by a previous administration out the window and his party will support him. Anything a member of the other party does will be simply fodder to fuel the next election campaign. So until Americans elect politicians who are willing to commit to a unified bipartisan vision of where we are to go--- we will go no where.
I love your work, JVL, but this piece feels so much like you’re just telling them to “lay back and think of England”, as they say in the UK.
Dying to defend your homeland - even in a futile effort on an individual level, even with a strong likelihood of dying, and even if the result is likely a fait accompli - is the ultimate in sacrifice and bravery. Do you think the dead of
The Warsaw Uprising were foolish, or that they were heroes who showed the absolute measure of their incredible bravery?
What happened to “give me liberty or give me death”?
So how do you think Russian mothers are feeling ?
To misquote Churchill, it may not be the beginning of the end, but it's the end of the beginning. Russia failed to score a coup de main, the Ukrainians did not rise up in joy to meet Russian forces, and the Russians failed to gain air superiority, knock out the command and control structure, or prevent damaging images and reporting from Ukraine. Russia has not been able to seal the Polish border, nor has it stopped rail transfer across that border. Its elite forces have been decimated; the street fighting reported in Kyiv was probably Ukrainian forces hunting down and killing wandering Russian paratroopers. Questions have arisen over how many missiles Russia has left. The majority of its quickly available combat forces have been deployed. Quick victory seems more and more unlikely.
Additionally, according to the Pentagon, Russia is having a hard time resupplying its forces. The main supply line for the troops aimed at Kiev runs through Europe's largest swamp, and the area is in partial thaw. If Russia has moved armored vehicles down paved highways, those highways are now unusable.
The specter of a longer war with high casualties confronts Russia. Its economic pain will only increase. The Ukrainian war is forcing Sweden and Finland, neutrals on Russia's northwestern flank, to consider closer relations with NATO. NATO itself is revitalized, and its members are beginning to direct lethal aid to the Ukraine.
It's far too early to say Russia missed the bus; but it obviously was consulting the wrong timetable.
If there are no rules in love and war, why don't more countries join Ukraine fighting against a larger nation?
I’m listening to the Secret Podcast and just spit out my breakfast when I heard about Rick Scott wanting to name a border wall after Trump. Please come to my kitchen to help clean it up. Thank you.
I'm not familiar enough yet with JVL's work to be disappointed, but I am surprised at the tone of defeatism and futility in the reflections above.
Parallels with the 1930s are slippery and tricky at times like this, but if there really is one, I'm more inclined to lean toward the resistance of the Poles in 1939 than to the plight of the tragic, morally compromised Republicans of the Spanish Civil War. The Poles, too, were massively outmanned and outgunned, but if they hadn't been betrayed and outflanked by the Soviet invasion, they were prepared to fight on, with or without hope in the short term. They never planned to ask for terms, and they're one of Hitler's few victims who never did.
Jan Karski was one of my professors at Georgetown in the 1970s. The defeat of the Nazis brought not victory but a longer, equally hopeless-seeming defeat to Poland. But even through all that, he never seemed to lose hope or faith in the ideals that drove his heroism in the '40s. Through such indomitable people, Polish freedom was ultimately restored.
If the Ukrainians seek terms, no one can blame them, and no one should condemn them: the kind of courage that Poland showed in 1939 and after is a gift, not an obligation that one person or nation can try to impose on another. But if they choose to resist until they cannot resist any more, and then still spit in the aggressor's eye, our only moral response is profound respect, and whatever we can do to aid the survivors, the refugees, and the captives.
Ukraine, even fallen, will rise again.
Comment about Thursday. I will have to replay it. It was full of a lot of information and I want to listen again. LIke watching a rerun of a TV show.
Peter the Great's disastrous initial campaign in Europe, the Winter War in Finland, and the first Chechnya war might be better guides to what might happen in Ukraine. In all of them, Russia seriously underestimated enemy capacities and motivation, used poorly trained and unmotivated conscripts, followed military scripts from earlier campaigns, and had military commanders more noted for their political acumen than their command ability.
For a number of reasons, Spain is not a good analogy. Republican Spain had deeply split commands and ideological interference, began the war with an almost complete lack of heavy weapons and trained commanders, was denied weaponry by democracies which did not want to get involved.
Regarding the invasion, I'm beginning to wonder if Russia has been fooled by its own propaganda into thinking that they would be welcomed by Ukrainians. Russia's invasion force is much too small (an assaulting commander usually wants at least a 3:1 advantage in numbers), and probably a third of Russia's forces are not combat soldiers proper, but second-line and support troops, necessary to modern warfare. Also, Ukraine is a big place, where even 200,000 troops will be hard-pressed to maintain contact and cohesion.
Finally, what made the Red Army fearsome in WWII is missing here. Intense propaganda portraying Germans as inhuman beasts, soldiers who had all lost family and friends to German atrocities, and a Communist ethic hammered into those soldiers since birth, all made the Red Army a force with which to be reckoned. Now, Russian soldiers are being sent to attack a culture seen as similar and friendly by Russians, and they have no personal or ideological motive to fight.
As shown by the Snake Island incident, the Ukrainians are the ones here who have high morale and motivation, a willingness to fight and die for their own nation and freedom. Don't underestimate that.
JVL says there's a special TNB tonight (Friday the 25th) but I'm not seeing a link anywhere. Did I miss something? Did I misunderstand?
I agree with everything Jonathan has written here about the horrific loss of life and extreme suffering that lies ahead for the Ukrainians if they keep up the fighting. But what about the purges and killings that surely also lie ahead if/when the Russian puppet government is installed? How many Ukrainians will join Navalny in prison camps in Russia?
We always enjoy your column. I don’t get comparisons of Afghanistan to Ukraine. Afg. was a swamp for the USSR and also a country too diverse geographically & economically with corrupt++ political leaders for us to ever rebuild as a Democratic Nation. Different tribes, languages, etc. The Taliban were enforcing their Religious views. Ukraine is a Democrat nation on its own. Ukraine desires freedom & ties with the West. Ukraine men & women are defending their COUNTRY. Putin’s newest invasion is continuing a war he began in 2014 with his grab of Crimea. -“Windows on the Sea” + Determination to also take over or Puppetize the other countries formerly part of the USSR. Very different. Perhaps 🤔 I am too Eurocentric.
I see what Ted is getting at, but I don't think it's quite a fair analysis to say that the franchise was granted to Black men in 1870 but not to Black women until 1965. There were plenty of Black women living outside the Jim Crow South during 1920-1965. I feel like it minimizes the significance of the 19th Amendment to talk about it this way.
Thought Biden's overt reaffirmation of his campaign pledge in the not-too-distant past was perhaps a tactical mistake vis a vie cannon fodder for the Right. Thought stealth producing the same results perhaps a better approach. Well, screw it. What the hell do I know anyway?
"Because we all need some beauty and hope just about now." Well, that I do know.
So, hell yes, "A thousand times yes." And at this moment, even if for only a moment, I am more than proud of America and of having the privilege of calling myself an American.
And pleased that a politician that I voted for ended up keeping a promise, even if it wasn't the driving factor in his being my choice. A man who keeps his word about doing something good in an arena in which not doing so is more often the expectation is a little piece of something beautiful as well.
"...Tom Nichols hammering home how crucial it is to be skeptical of contemporaneous reports on the fighting in Ukraine."
I don't think this can be hammered home too hard or too often.
The hysteria pumped up on Twitter is absolutely nauseating both from those who support Ukraine and those who support or minimize Russia's behavior. Brief cell phone snaps and 10 second videos are not to be trusted without some journalistic exploration and educated understanding.
In the end the anti-social media will make a strong and effective response impossible because Putin has a pipeline of disinformation working for him at every level of American society. A political party that will support Ukraine--- but not the way Biden is doing it--- even though he is mostly doing what they say should be done... but "Let's Go, Brandon!"
Following WW2 we were able to hammer out a general bipartisan foreign policy that informed (for good or bad) our military posture. How to work the policy was debated but the overall objectives went unquestioned from Truman to George H. W. Bush. With the collapse of the Soviet Empire the bipartisan consensus began to fall apart. The Congressional slide into hyperpartisan "ownership" of the government beginning with newt Gingrich meant that both parties became hesitant to ratify the foreign policy choices of any administration. From then on a victory for America was a victory for "the other team" and credit could not be given lest the other team would be effective and popular. Better America fail than allow that to happen. That is where we are today.
The singular exception was the few months after 9/11 to election of 2002. Congress, under majorities of both parties, has not had the courage to declare war itself but ample acid to through in the face of administrations trying to engage militarily where it was felt necessary. George W. Bush and Obama could hardly rely on Congress for support at all.
So that is the vital and probably irreparably lost element to push America through any foreign crisis. Now an interloper like Trump can just cast any agreement made by a previous administration out the window and his party will support him. Anything a member of the other party does will be simply fodder to fuel the next election campaign. So until Americans elect politicians who are willing to commit to a unified bipartisan vision of where we are to go--- we will go no where.
As an ignoramus, I don't understand how there can be a fog of war in the age of cell phones/cameras and the Internet.