The Last Big Economic Report Before the Midterms Just Dropped
It's . . . pretty good. Plus Trump heads to Florida after FT gives DeSantis a shine up.
Come hang out with me tonight: I’ll be on the livestream with Bill Kristol and Tim Miller to talk about everything in the midterms.
Only for members of Bulwark+.
Before we get started: It doesn’t really fit with anything else today, but Democrats are worried that they’re going to lose a bunch of elections in two weeks. And they’re right to be worried—because they’re going to win some races and lose a bunch of others. Democrats are not arguing that Kari Lake would not be the legitimately elected governor of Arizona if she wins. They’re arguing that Kari Lake would be a dangerous governor.
Republicans, on the other hand, are preparing to call elections they lose illegitimate. That is, when they’re not preemptively saying that they may not accept the results.
Of course, not all Republicans are saying these things. But I do not see
many any of the Good Republicans publicly disavowing the people on their side who are pushing the stolen election stories or shunning those who say that they may not accept the results.
Seems like an important data point in telling the good guys from the bad guys. But what do I know.
Gas prices are down more than 20 percent from their peak. People still wish that gas was $2 a gallon and one of the immutable laws of politics is that unless gas is priced to the voters’ satisfaction, then they will punish the party that holds the White House. Or something.
Okay. On to the show.
1. The Economy: Still Pretty Good
I have a recurring argument with my best friends where I maintain that economic conditions are pretty good.
Not great. Not a new golden age. Not Morning in America. But pretty good.
Inflation is real and it eats into wage growth. Yes, gas prices are high. But the larger issues are unemployment and growth of the overall economy—on those scores, we’ve been doing well.
All year long we’ve been waiting for the economic data that was released today, because the October Q3 numbers are always the big final input for the midterm elections.