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So glad you discovered Canzano. I’ve been reading his thoughts when he was the sports columnist for the local paper then happily following him to Substack. This piece is a great example of his ability to find stories that need to be told and encourage discovering our humanity. Oh, and he’s a damn good sports writer too.

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The Matthew Yglesias article has a lot of useful information. Where I disagree, however, is the conclusion that the only way that we can have prosperity is to go back to the days when we had exponential population growth driving economic development. Policies that depend on infinite consumption of finite resources will eventually fail.

As for the specifics of the counties winning and losing population, it makes much more sense environmentally and economically to use virtual mobility to reduce demand on the most expensive housing markets while allowing people to stay in less expensive housing markets without sacrificing career opportunities. What happened organically in Maine in response to Covid could be proactively promoted by mid-sized cities across the country rather than accepting the long decline.

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Lots of great comments here, so JVL, not sure if you'll see this. I L-O-V-E when you go dark. I also love when you bring the light. The story about Fred was deeply moving. Thank you for drawing attention to it.

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founding

Thank you for the Canzano article.

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The piece on Fred was an excellent look into the issue of homelessness. And not all homeless are mentally ill, but many are, or if not mentally ill at least maladjusted. Doing something about mental illness should include having adequate mental health care as well as social workers to help folks with "the system." We also need more public housing, including housing designed for those who need care.

Sadly conservatives (Reagan and all the rest) make public housing anathema - and yes there were mistakes with the large housing projects built in the 50s but no public housing is clearly worse. And we need money for healthcare - so all states should have expanded Medicaid and Medicaid should have its budget increased to pay for care.

But conservatives (gotta love 'em) care only for tax rates, especially for the wealthiest and for large corporations.

Oh and homelessness, they blame it all on the Dems and failed policies.

Actually "blue states" are largely better educated, healthier, safer then red states.

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Apr 16, 2023·edited Apr 16, 2023

Fred's story reminds me of someone I used to work with. This person bit by bit became more and more mentally unstable, but was still coming into work. However you couldn't help but overhear the dialog this person having and know what they were doing. They got divorced. They turned on their family. They were endlessly buying things online, digging a deeper and deeper financial hole. Their job performance went down. They became abusive to coworkers. Then one day they didn't come into work. We organized something of a manhunt and located the former spouse. The former spouse found them and helped in getting the care that was needed (hospitalization). They were gone for quite some time, and then gradually picked up work duties again, starting by working limited hours and building up. They eventually made a full recovery. It made me see how easy it would be to lose it all if you became mentally unstable. Most people would have lost their job at the point where they didn't show up to work, if not before. The fact that this was a government job kept the person from being fired. Having a former spouse willing to step in to help, and being given the time they needed to recover, made all the difference in the world in this case. Most people are not so lucky.

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Apr 15, 2023·edited Apr 16, 2023

Thanks for the essay by John Canzano (I subscribed).

It reminds me of a story a little closer to home. There is a house in my neighborhood in Raleigh which has been vacant for as long as I've lived here (about 2 years). A man and his little dog stay on the porch. The man is maybe in his late 30's or early 40's and is clearly suffering from some mental illness. Our neighborhood has kind of looked out for him. The house recently sold and he is going to have to leave. I was talking to a neighbor about him and she told me that the house was his family house. He was raised there, but his family basically dissolved. His brother went to prison and his mother struggles with her own mental health issues and hasn't been seen for some time. I think about it alot -- how it must feel to be homeless and living on the porch of the home where you grew up with your family. Living with the memories and the ghosts. It's utterly heartbreaking.

Everybody has a story. It's important to remember that when we see them on the streets or in the news.

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founding
Apr 15, 2023·edited Apr 15, 2023

We read Fred's story (and occasionally others like it) in the comfort of our well-fed, well-clothed, well-appointed lives and nearly always fail to realize or seriously think "There, but for the grace...", thinking instead all this *wellness* is all because of ourselves, our hard work and our great good sense, seldom if ever crediting anything else having a hand in our good fortune, when we are, in fact, *all* only one cruel turn of the screw away from being on our knees.

You can't think about this every minute, or you just might lose your mind. There's already enough crap out there pushing our brains toward the lost and found bin, so no reason to pile it on. But we should take stock occasionally, and maybe remember to be a tad more thankful than we are at any given moment that there are a lot of Freds in the world who will help us when they can, and in return deserve our help when the screw has turned for them.

And remember as well that no one stands so tall as when they bend down to help someone else rise.

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On Matt Yglesia's theory of the difference between market value and replacement cost due to population declines. I'd argue correlation isn't necessarily causation.

I have personally seen this same relationship in places where populations are INCREASING. And my data points are home owners insurance in 3 different counties across the US. The insurer's replacement costs were well in excess for the market value of the home (after consideration of the land value). What I found after discussing with my insurer directly about this disconnect (i.e. "why would I carry replacement coverage greater than the market value of my home?") was replacement costs take into account costs of having to raze the property and, more importantly, the significantly increased cost of labor and materials over the last couple of years that are NOT reflective of market value considerations of buying a ready to move in home.

Don't know if others have had similar experiences or not??

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founding

Does it bother anyone else that the chart of population loss is for one Covid year? How about ten years, instead?

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Apr 15, 2023Liked by Jonathan V. Last

Wow what a range of issues!

The story about Fred hits home as in my small City we have about 250 homeless people. There are organizations in the City that offer services like meals, shelter, and health care. For example, there is a group of physicians, some retired, some not, who volunteer their services on a monthly basis through various organizations that offer healthcare.

A guy that I knew, who was a year ahead of me in the local Catholic High School that I attended back in the 1960s, lived out the latter part of his life as a homeless person. He came from an upper middle class family. I never did find out exactly why he ended up homeless. We who knew him from school accepted him as he was. When I saw him about Town, he never appeared to be dirty, just worn-looking. I remember seeing him at an art opening in the City discussing one of the pieces with one of his former classmates.

I am in my early 70s and he died a number of years back. I always think about him when I see a homeless person. I believe that any one of us, if we suffered a significant blow to our bubble of security, could become homeless.

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I don’t know where else to put this, but I’m hoping JVL sees it. I have inexplicably stopped receiving anything from The Bulwark in my inbox, and I do miss it. Carry on. :(

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Thank you for connecting people with John Canzano's work. I read both your Bulwark pieces (as well as most of the Bulwark thinkers) as well as Jon's stuff, and my world gets a little more hopeful everyday with these reminders that there are still people out there who think clearly and write well - and also think often about who we are and can be collectively if we can tune out the crap and the crap-throwers and think about each other.

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Is the house falling below replacement value more a central city thing? With SFHs in single family zoned suburbs, no one is planning to knock those things down anytime soon unless they aren’t well maintained. And yeah, I do expect that a turnkey house built on my property to be quite a bit more expensive than the current house built in the early 90s.

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Thank you for sharing the story about Fred.

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Thanks for the heart wrenching story about Fred. It's a good reminder to me to try to be more cognizant of the soul behind the homeless I encounter. This makes me more aware to practice - as no we say at our church -seeing the Christ in them, and beholding them as our brother or sister.

It quickens my conscience to be more willing to help instead of complaining that their very presence in my space....my visual field.....is son off putting and dangerous. How sad is that.

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