No, as painful as this is: Trump could win again. The popular vote is irrelevant. Biden will win that. The Electoral College remains razor thin. Our national election will be decided in 6 states. What a system!
In 2016 Hillary Clinton and her team’s biggest mistake: deep down they did not believe they could lose to him. Impossible they thought. A paid consultant of theirs produced a document a few weeks before the election telling them to prepare for a landslide victory. Yes, exactly what they wanted to hear. A more aware candidate would have publicly fired him on the spot and implored her people to act as if we were down by 10 points. As we all know Hilary was not that candidate. Cancel the big election night victory firework show.
There is no circumstance in the past sixty years (except 2001) that would lead anybody to think the in-party would “sweep” anything. That would be like the Second Coming. This is more like Cana. Nice, but not earth-shattering.
JVL is of course correct, we know what Trump is and we know the character of the gangsters and terrorists he will bring along with him. We know they already have databases of people to install and we know their project is to overthrow the republic and seize power permanently.
Choosing between preferred possible Republican nominees is like choosing which of two revolvers to hold to your forehead and pull the trigger. One, revolver A, is known to be loaded. The other, revolver B, is almost certain to also be loaded, but you can't be sure until you try it. So you really only have one choice: blow your brains out with revolver B.
I literally cannot stomach another Trump run. I am not sure my familial relationships could withstand it. I am really not sure that the country could stand it. Trump 2.0 would have learned from his "failings" of his first term - no more establishment picks for ANYTHING. Don't get any cabinet pick confirmed - just run the entire term with 'acting' nut jobs. Flynn, Bannon, Patel, Powell, etc. He's angrier and more paranoid. He's also aligned himself with more extreme elements of our dark underbelly (or, have they aligned themselves with him - just toss some flattery his direction and he's all in... but regardless). It's just so infuriating that the R's can't take out their own trash and look to the Democrats to do their dirty work. It's DISGUSTING. He's YOUR MONSTER - you let him grow and infect the body politic - DEAL with him - and face that base that you are afraid of... Stop being such cowards. DO SOMETHING. (Little post Thanksgiving unresolved rage here. it appears... sorry)
I’m a left of center Democrat living in Arizona so Mark Kelly is the perfect Senator for me. I think Trump would absolutely be easier to defeat in 2024 but I definitely do not want him to be the Republican nominee. He is a stain on this country’s history and far too much of a risk to be allowed anywhere near the White House again even if his chances of winning are 30-40%.
Trump’s cult of personality cannot easily be replicated. But his popularity exposes the truth about the extreme right wing [today’s Republican Party]….they’re angry and have no other plan for America than manufacturing faux Culture Wars. So Trump has a built in advantage in a Republican primary. No matter who gets the Republican nomination in 2024 the message of hate and demonization will not play to a national audience exhausted or bored by it all.
I accidentally clicked on the wrong vote any you can't take it back. Oh well.
The first question is too complex though: if Trump loses the GOP nom then he will split the vote and lead the Democrats to a massive landslide--exactly what Republicans deserve. So I hope Trump sees that he cannot win because the party has the knives out for him and he starts his third party bid earlier. It will be great to see Democratic Senators from states like Wyoming and Mississippi for a change.
If Trump wins the nom, he will unify the GOP behind him and have at least a chance at winning the election. That is the worst case scenario for Republicans.
In Arizona, the top four statewide Election Denying Republicans (Senator, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General) supported by Trump in the Primary all lost their races. The fifth top statewide Republican is the State Treasurer. That Republican, Kimberly Yee, seconded Trump's nomination in 2020, but she was not an overt Election Denier. She won a 55.7% landslide. Based on this, I would suggest that Trump endorsed candidates and Trump himself has a 5% deficit to surmount compared with any other Republican.
I am pretty confided that Trump would lose to almost any credible Democrat. I'm also pretty sure NATO could sink a lot of Russian ships without triggering nuclear Armageddon.
Trump is just so awful that it is bad for the country if he even runs as a viable candidate, never mind possibly winning. So we cannot have him run. If he did run I actually think the “fat Elvis” analogy by one of the commenters is apt and he would lose against a relatively normal Democrat. But because anything could happen in a general election (Biden, or whoever, could have a stroke), we simply cannot take the chance that Trump becomes the nominee.
As a "left of center", I would love a Democrat to win, but even the thought of rRump running would keep my up for the intervening two years. DeSantis would have a better chance to win, but he too is a person that I could not trust, ie: planes to Martha's Vineyard. We need two candidates who have some morals and compassion. We need a Ford/Carter choice. Neither outstanding,but both extremely moral.
The reader comments on Glenn Beck's FB site, "White House Brief" provide an excellent viewing for the sentiments of the base. A few months ago if anyone wrote a comment criticizing Trump, the response would be hundreds of angry denouncements from MAGAs. It is a pretty dramatic change to see a few people now daring to post condemnations of Trump - specifically for his criticism of DeSantis - and the response being a combination of just crickets from Trump defenders and praise for DeSantis.
I think DeSantis will be the nominee and although smarter than Trump, he is just as much a bigot and power-hungry autocrat. His wife will also be more of a political asset for him than Melania was for Trump.
Even if a fairy came down from fairyland and said that the only GOP candidate that Democrats could beat is Trump, I’d still say I don’t want him to be the candidate. If we criticized GOP politicians for supporting Trump because they win (theoretically) with him, we’d be just as bad wanting him as the candidate because Dems would win. I want the GOP to run a non-sociopath which is basically anyone else.
No, as painful as this is: Trump could win again. The popular vote is irrelevant. Biden will win that. The Electoral College remains razor thin. Our national election will be decided in 6 states. What a system!
In 2016 Hillary Clinton and her team’s biggest mistake: deep down they did not believe they could lose to him. Impossible they thought. A paid consultant of theirs produced a document a few weeks before the election telling them to prepare for a landslide victory. Yes, exactly what they wanted to hear. A more aware candidate would have publicly fired him on the spot and implored her people to act as if we were down by 10 points. As we all know Hilary was not that candidate. Cancel the big election night victory firework show.
Nooooo! I want him gone. I don't want to see his ugly fat face ever again.
There is no circumstance in the past sixty years (except 2001) that would lead anybody to think the in-party would “sweep” anything. That would be like the Second Coming. This is more like Cana. Nice, but not earth-shattering.
I don’t think Trump has any chance to win a general. He’s yesterday’s news. Of course he should be the nominee.
I also said there wouldn’t be a red wave. I hope that gives me some credibility. 😉
JVL is of course correct, we know what Trump is and we know the character of the gangsters and terrorists he will bring along with him. We know they already have databases of people to install and we know their project is to overthrow the republic and seize power permanently.
Choosing between preferred possible Republican nominees is like choosing which of two revolvers to hold to your forehead and pull the trigger. One, revolver A, is known to be loaded. The other, revolver B, is almost certain to also be loaded, but you can't be sure until you try it. So you really only have one choice: blow your brains out with revolver B.
I literally cannot stomach another Trump run. I am not sure my familial relationships could withstand it. I am really not sure that the country could stand it. Trump 2.0 would have learned from his "failings" of his first term - no more establishment picks for ANYTHING. Don't get any cabinet pick confirmed - just run the entire term with 'acting' nut jobs. Flynn, Bannon, Patel, Powell, etc. He's angrier and more paranoid. He's also aligned himself with more extreme elements of our dark underbelly (or, have they aligned themselves with him - just toss some flattery his direction and he's all in... but regardless). It's just so infuriating that the R's can't take out their own trash and look to the Democrats to do their dirty work. It's DISGUSTING. He's YOUR MONSTER - you let him grow and infect the body politic - DEAL with him - and face that base that you are afraid of... Stop being such cowards. DO SOMETHING. (Little post Thanksgiving unresolved rage here. it appears... sorry)
I’m a left of center Democrat living in Arizona so Mark Kelly is the perfect Senator for me. I think Trump would absolutely be easier to defeat in 2024 but I definitely do not want him to be the Republican nominee. He is a stain on this country’s history and far too much of a risk to be allowed anywhere near the White House again even if his chances of winning are 30-40%.
Trump’s cult of personality cannot easily be replicated. But his popularity exposes the truth about the extreme right wing [today’s Republican Party]….they’re angry and have no other plan for America than manufacturing faux Culture Wars. So Trump has a built in advantage in a Republican primary. No matter who gets the Republican nomination in 2024 the message of hate and demonization will not play to a national audience exhausted or bored by it all.
The powers of the office are too great, and the nature of Trump's personality disorders too dark, to risk bringing them together again. Regardless.
I accidentally clicked on the wrong vote any you can't take it back. Oh well.
The first question is too complex though: if Trump loses the GOP nom then he will split the vote and lead the Democrats to a massive landslide--exactly what Republicans deserve. So I hope Trump sees that he cannot win because the party has the knives out for him and he starts his third party bid earlier. It will be great to see Democratic Senators from states like Wyoming and Mississippi for a change.
If Trump wins the nom, he will unify the GOP behind him and have at least a chance at winning the election. That is the worst case scenario for Republicans.
Hi JVL,
In Arizona, the top four statewide Election Denying Republicans (Senator, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General) supported by Trump in the Primary all lost their races. The fifth top statewide Republican is the State Treasurer. That Republican, Kimberly Yee, seconded Trump's nomination in 2020, but she was not an overt Election Denier. She won a 55.7% landslide. Based on this, I would suggest that Trump endorsed candidates and Trump himself has a 5% deficit to surmount compared with any other Republican.
Gary Robbins, Flagstaff
I am pretty confided that Trump would lose to almost any credible Democrat. I'm also pretty sure NATO could sink a lot of Russian ships without triggering nuclear Armageddon.
I don't want to test either of those theories.
Trump is just so awful that it is bad for the country if he even runs as a viable candidate, never mind possibly winning. So we cannot have him run. If he did run I actually think the “fat Elvis” analogy by one of the commenters is apt and he would lose against a relatively normal Democrat. But because anything could happen in a general election (Biden, or whoever, could have a stroke), we simply cannot take the chance that Trump becomes the nominee.
As a "left of center", I would love a Democrat to win, but even the thought of rRump running would keep my up for the intervening two years. DeSantis would have a better chance to win, but he too is a person that I could not trust, ie: planes to Martha's Vineyard. We need two candidates who have some morals and compassion. We need a Ford/Carter choice. Neither outstanding,but both extremely moral.
The reader comments on Glenn Beck's FB site, "White House Brief" provide an excellent viewing for the sentiments of the base. A few months ago if anyone wrote a comment criticizing Trump, the response would be hundreds of angry denouncements from MAGAs. It is a pretty dramatic change to see a few people now daring to post condemnations of Trump - specifically for his criticism of DeSantis - and the response being a combination of just crickets from Trump defenders and praise for DeSantis.
I think DeSantis will be the nominee and although smarter than Trump, he is just as much a bigot and power-hungry autocrat. His wife will also be more of a political asset for him than Melania was for Trump.
Even if a fairy came down from fairyland and said that the only GOP candidate that Democrats could beat is Trump, I’d still say I don’t want him to be the candidate. If we criticized GOP politicians for supporting Trump because they win (theoretically) with him, we’d be just as bad wanting him as the candidate because Dems would win. I want the GOP to run a non-sociopath which is basically anyone else.