For a loooooong time I’ve maintained that, barring a health event, Joe Biden was the most likely Democratic nominee for 2024. I typically put his chances of being the nominee at something like 95 percent—with the 5 percent being him deciding that he didn’t want to run.

If Biden runs, he’s the nominee. Full stop.

But in a weird way, the Democrats’ midterm success has created an off-ramp for Biden and maybe makes it more likely that he decides not to run.